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UC Berkeley Economics Department Field Exam: Economic Demography, Exams of Economics

A field exam from the university of california, berkeley's economics department, focusing on economic demography. The exam covers topics such as investment in children, immigration and wages, population projections, and the relation of population change to economic development. Students are required to answer all parts of all questions, cite literature where appropriate, and complete the exam within three hours.

Typology: Exams

2011/2012

Uploaded on 12/04/2012

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Department of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
August 20, 2008
Field Exam for Economic Demography
Please answer all parts of all questions, which will be weighted in the total grade as
indicated in parentheses. Cite the literature where appropriate. You have three hours.
1. (25) Discuss the treatment of investment in children in Chayanov, in the Quantity-
Quality theory of fertility, and in an altruistic analysis of investment in children. Explain
why parents may choose to invest less than the efficient amount in the education of their
children in the altruistic case. What is a convenient indirect indicator of whether optimal
investment in children has occurred in a given family? (For present purposes investment
in children is the same as expenditures on children or transfers to children; if you prefer
to distinguish among them, explain your distinctions.)
2. (25) In a recent article, Borjas claims that analysis of the effects of immigration on the
wages of domestic workers is best carried out at the national level rather than at the level
of local labor markets. Explain the basis for this claim, and sketch his strategy for the
national analysis. What is Card’s view about whether analysis of local labor markets is
helpful in this regard, and what evidence does he present in support of his view?
3. We are interested in assessing mortality and fertility and projecting the female
population of Thailand.
a) There were 12,574 deaths to infant girls below the age of 1 in 1998 and the number of
girls below the age of 1 at mid-year was about 459,000. There were about 470,000
female births during the year. Assuming a radix of 100,000, the lifetable person-years
lived between the ages of 1 and 10 is about 9L1 = 863,000. Calculate the lifetable
probability of dying before the age of 1 and the lifetable person-years lived between ages
zero and ten.
b) The following 5 by 5 dimensional Leslie Matrix with n=10-year-wide age groups is
designed for projecting the female population of Thailand forward in steps of 10 years
each. In 1998 there were 5.489 million girls aged zero to ten, 5.709 million young women
aged ten to twenty, 5.271 million women aged twenty to thirty, 4.366 million women
aged thirty to forty, 2.957 million women aged forty to fifty, and 4.483 million women
over fifty.
0.0535 0.3173 0.3749 0.1274 0.0216
0.9910 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.0000 0.9838 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.0000 0.0000 0.9781 0.0000 0.0000
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.9723 0.0000
pf2

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Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley August 20, 2008

Field Exam for Economic Demography

Please answer all parts of all questions, which will be weighted in the total grade as indicated in parentheses. Cite the literature where appropriate. You have three hours.

  1. (25) Discuss the treatment of investment in children in Chayanov, in the Quantity- Quality theory of fertility, and in an altruistic analysis of investment in children. Explain why parents may choose to invest less than the efficient amount in the education of their children in the altruistic case. What is a convenient indirect indicator of whether optimal investment in children has occurred in a given family? (For present purposes investment in children is the same as expenditures on children or transfers to children; if you prefer to distinguish among them, explain your distinctions.)
  2. (25) In a recent article, Borjas claims that analysis of the effects of immigration on the wages of domestic workers is best carried out at the national level rather than at the level of local labor markets. Explain the basis for this claim, and sketch his strategy for the national analysis. What is Card’s view about whether analysis of local labor markets is helpful in this regard, and what evidence does he present in support of his view?
  3. We are interested in assessing mortality and fertility and projecting the female population of Thailand.

a) There were 12,574 deaths to infant girls below the age of 1 in 1998 and the number of girls below the age of 1 at mid-year was about 459,000. There were about 470, female births during the year. Assuming a radix of 100,000, the lifetable person-years lived between the ages of 1 and 10 is about 9L1 = 863,000. Calculate the lifetable probability of dying before the age of 1 and the lifetable person-years lived between ages zero and ten.

b) The following 5 by 5 dimensional Leslie Matrix with n=10-year-wide age groups is designed for projecting the female population of Thailand forward in steps of 10 years each. In 1998 there were 5.489 million girls aged zero to ten, 5.709 million young women aged ten to twenty, 5.271 million women aged twenty to thirty, 4.366 million women aged thirty to forty, 2.957 million women aged forty to fifty, and 4.483 million women over fifty.

0.0535 0.3173 0.3749 0.1274 0. 0.9910 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0. 0.0000 0.9838 0.0000 0.0000 0. 0.0000 0.0000 0.9781 0.0000 0. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.9723 0.

Which ten-year wide age group will be the largest twenty years hence in 2018, and how large will it be?

c) Explain in one sentence why the upper-left element A11 is not zero in this particular Leslie Matrix.

d) Using information from all relevant parts of this problem, estimate the average female births per year in Thailand over the next ten years.

e) For a simple "youth dependency ratio" take the ratio of persons aged zero to twenty divided by the number aged twenty to fifty, in this case for the female population. Will this ratio be increasing or decreasing over the next ten years in Thailand according to this projection?

  1. (25) Below are listed three papers on different aspects of the relation of population change to economic development (Acemoglu and Johnson, Bloom et al, and Miller). Each attempts to draw causal conclusions from empirical analysis. Explain the problems of endogeneity that arise in each of these three analyses, and the identification strategy employed in each case. Which of the three papers did you find most and least convincing, and why?

Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson (2007) “Disease and Development: the Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth”, Journal of Political Economy , (December) volume 115, pp. 925-985.

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink, and Jocelyn E. Finlay (2007) “Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend” working paper (September).

Grant Miller (2007) “Contraception as Development? New Evidence from Family Planning in Colombia,” (May) working paper.