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A field exam from the university of california, berkeley's economics department, focusing on economic demography. The exam covers topics such as investment in children, immigration and wages, population projections, and the relation of population change to economic development. Students are required to answer all parts of all questions, cite literature where appropriate, and complete the exam within three hours.
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Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley August 20, 2008
Field Exam for Economic Demography
Please answer all parts of all questions, which will be weighted in the total grade as indicated in parentheses. Cite the literature where appropriate. You have three hours.
a) There were 12,574 deaths to infant girls below the age of 1 in 1998 and the number of girls below the age of 1 at mid-year was about 459,000. There were about 470, female births during the year. Assuming a radix of 100,000, the lifetable person-years lived between the ages of 1 and 10 is about 9L1 = 863,000. Calculate the lifetable probability of dying before the age of 1 and the lifetable person-years lived between ages zero and ten.
b) The following 5 by 5 dimensional Leslie Matrix with n=10-year-wide age groups is designed for projecting the female population of Thailand forward in steps of 10 years each. In 1998 there were 5.489 million girls aged zero to ten, 5.709 million young women aged ten to twenty, 5.271 million women aged twenty to thirty, 4.366 million women aged thirty to forty, 2.957 million women aged forty to fifty, and 4.483 million women over fifty.
0.0535 0.3173 0.3749 0.1274 0. 0.9910 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0. 0.0000 0.9838 0.0000 0.0000 0. 0.0000 0.0000 0.9781 0.0000 0. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.9723 0.
Which ten-year wide age group will be the largest twenty years hence in 2018, and how large will it be?
c) Explain in one sentence why the upper-left element A11 is not zero in this particular Leslie Matrix.
d) Using information from all relevant parts of this problem, estimate the average female births per year in Thailand over the next ten years.
e) For a simple "youth dependency ratio" take the ratio of persons aged zero to twenty divided by the number aged twenty to fifty, in this case for the female population. Will this ratio be increasing or decreasing over the next ten years in Thailand according to this projection?
Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson (2007) “Disease and Development: the Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth”, Journal of Political Economy , (December) volume 115, pp. 925-985.
David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink, and Jocelyn E. Finlay (2007) “Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend” working paper (September).
Grant Miller (2007) “Contraception as Development? New Evidence from Family Planning in Colombia,” (May) working paper.