Quiz
Multiple Choice Questions (1 pt. each)
1. (1 pt.) we focus on the following forecasting methods:
a. Horoscopes and crystal balls
b. Causal methods
c. Time series methods
d. Qualitative methods
2. (1 pt.) When LS = 0.40, SES gives the following weight to the second-most-recent data point:
a. 0.24
b. 0.40
c. 0.60
d. 0.76
e. It depends on how much data is available
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Oil price
Oil price
Forecast 1
Forecast 2
3. (1 pt.) The graph above shows the price of oil and forecasts computed by two different forecasting
methods. What method was used to compute Forecast 2?
a. SES = Simple Exponential Smoothing
b. DES = Double Exponential Smoothing
c. TES = Triple Exponential Smoothing
d. SLR = Simple Linear Regression
e. SLR w SI = Simple Linear Regression with Seasonality Indices
Forecasting ATV deaths in Alberta
The “ATV” worksheet shows the number of fatal All Terrain Vehicle (ATV) accidental deaths in Alberta
from 2000 to 2005.
4. (2 pts.) Use the Last Point (LP) method to forecast the number of ATV deaths, starting with the first
year that you can compute a forecast for and up to and including 2007.
5. (3 pts.) Compute forecast errors for all years where this is possible, using your forecasts from
question 4. Compute the standard error (SE).
6. (2 pts.) Provide a 95% prediction interval for the number of ATV deaths in 2006. Do not round your
answers.
See next page for last Question
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