Regional Trends in Electric Vehicle Adoption and Infrastructure, Study notes of Electrical Engineering

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Fundamentals of Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Prateek Joshi and Carishma Gokhale-Welch

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

November 2022

Background

This slide deck was developed for and presented at an Energy Fundamentals Course hosted by

the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) in October 2022. The National

Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) helped organize this course in partnership with the United

States Agency for International Development (USAID). The students in this four-day course were

postgraduates and working professionals in the energy sector or related industries in Bangladesh.

While some of the content in the slide deck is tailored to Bangladesh specifically, this presentation

is intended to be a general primer on electric vehicles that can be utilized for similar purposes by

other universities or organizations throughout the world. The content of this slide deck is not

intended to be fully comprehensive of all electric vehicle concepts.

a. Global trends b. Regional trends

1. EV Trends

a. Vehicle types b. Opportunities c. Challenges

2. EV Technology

a. Charging infrastructure b. Impact to grid

3. EV Charging

a. Options b. Case studies

4. EV Policies

Image: Capital District Clean Communities Coalition (Albany)

Outline

Global Trends

Passenger cars: 16.7 million (9% of global

sales)

Commercial vehicles: 180,000 (1% of

global sales)

Buses: 685,000 (44% of global sales)

Two- and Three-Wheelers: 275 million

(42% of global sales)

2021 EV Stock

Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2022)

Figure. Global electric passenger car stock, 2011-

Global Trends

Cost Declines in Batteries

• Higher upfront cost of most EVs compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) counterpart is due to cost of battery.
• Battery pack prices have fallen 89% since 2010, despite recent supply chain issues. - Unsubsidized upfront price parity expected in most vehicle segments and markets by the late 2020s. - Already, the lifetime operational cost of owning EVs is typically lower than the ICE counterpart due to reduced fuel and maintenance expenses.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2022)

Figure. Decrease in cost of battery packs, 2010-

Figure. Projected decrease in cost of batteries, 2020-

Source: NREL Electrification Futures Study (Jadun et al., 2017)

Global Trends

Expansion of Charging Infrastructure

Figure. Publicly accessible light-duty vehicle charging points by power rating and region, 2015-2021 (^) Source: International Energy Agency (2022)

Figure. Projected EV charger trends by region, 2020-

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2022)

• 40% increase in publicly available charging stations between 2015 and 2021.
• 2021 global average: 10 EVs per charging point. - Bloomberg 2040 projections: 30-40 EVs per public charger and 100-300 EVs per ultra-fast charger.

a. Global trends b. Regional trends

1. EV Trends

a. Vehicle types b. Opportunities c. Challenges

2. EV Technology

a. Charging infrastructure b. Impact to grid

3. EV Charging

a. Options b. Case studies

4. EV Policies

Image: Capital District Clean Communities Coalition (Albany)

Outline

Electric Drive Trains

Hybrid Electric Vehicle Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle

• ICE and electric motor
• Batteries are charged by engine (no external charging) - ICE and electric motor - Batteries are rechargeable - 100% electric motor - Batteries are rechargeable - 100% electric motor - Fuel cell converts hydrogen and oxygen into electricity - Requires hydrogen distribution infrastructure Images: National Motorists Association Blog (2020)

Opportunities

Zero tailpipe emissions and improved air quality

Reduced greenhouse gas emissions

Increased fuel efficiency

Reduced maintenance and fuel costs

Economic and job opportunities

Falling costs for batteries

Performance benefits and quiet operation

Enhanced energy security

Figure. EV net social benefits in U.S. under various scenarios ($/year) Source: Melaina et al. (2016)

Market growth

Cost of vehicles and chargers

Cost of petroleum

Challenges

Higher upfront costs for some segments

Increased electricity demand

Access to critical minerals for batteries

Workforce development

Charging infrastructure buildout

Figure. Potential increase in U.S. electricity demand due to transport electrification, 2020- Source: NREL Electrification Futures Study (Jadun et al., 2017)

Figure. Projected supply and demand for critical minerals in EV batteries, 2020- Source: International Energy Agency (2022) NZE: net zero emissions by 2050 scenario STEPS: stated policies scenario APS: announced pledges scenario

EV Charging

Office Shopping Center

Attraction Highway Apartment

Gas Station

8 hours (or more) 30 minutes (or less)

House

Purpose of Charging Stations (all types):

• Connects EV to grid
• Dedicated circuit prevents overloading
• Safe connection before power can flow
• Prevents EV battery damage

Figure. Range of typical dwell times for chargers at various locations

Source: Bopp et al. (2020)

Residential Charging

 Most established markets focused on residential charging first.

 Internationally, 50%-80% of all charging events occurred at residences (Hardman et al. 2018).

 Lack of residential charging availability is often found to be a barrier to EV adoption (Funke et al. 2019).

 Residential charging can use Level 1 or Level 2 EV supply equipment (EVSEs).

• 3–8 km per hour of charging
• Charging speed often limited by vehicle
• Alternating Current
• 120 V

Level 1 EVSE

Source: Aznar et al. (2021) Image: Erik Nelsen (NREL)

Battery Swapping

• Easier for motorcycles/scooters because liftable size and less expensive to carry redundant batteries
• Rickshaws use multiple batteries but can be compatible
• More compatible with renewables than EVSE
• Reduces the upfront cost of scooters and increases lifespan
• Largest networks operated by Gogoro (Taiwan), Immotor (China), KYMCO (Taiwan)
• Honda, KTM, Piaggio, and Yamaha have formed a swappable battery consortium for standards

Image: electrek.co

Source: Aznar et al. (2021)

What Are Some Common Standards?

• SAE J1772 – North America
  • 5-pin AC charging port (Type 1)
  • 7-pin DC charging port: Combined Charging Standard (CCS1)
• IEC 61851/62196 – Europe and

emerging markets

• 7-pin AC charging port (Type 2)
• 9-pin DC charging port (CCS2)
• DC charging uses two additional dedicated DC pins.
• All chargers require additional pins for communication or controls.
• India has Bharat Standards (low power), CCS, CCS2, CHAdeMO, and Tesla.

EU, Australia, and parts of Africa, South America, and S. Korea and Middle East

Figure. Predominant charging standards in different regions Image: Enel X

Source: Bopp et al. (2020)