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Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm TAUKTAE over the Arabian Sea
(14th-19th^ May, 2021): A Report
1. Life History of TAUKTAE: A low pressure area formed over southeast Arabian Sea & adjoining Lakshadweep area in the morning (0 8 30 hrs IST/ 0300 UTC) of 13th May 202 1. It lay as a well marked low pressure area over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea in the same evening (1730 hours IST/1200 UTC of 13th May). Under favourable environmental conditions, it concentrated into a depression over Lakshadweep area in the morning (0830 hrs IST) of 14th^ May, 2021. It intensified into a deep depression over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast & eastcentral Arabian Sea in the same afternoon ( 14 30 hrs IST/ 0900 UTC of 14th^ May) and into cyclonic storm “TAUKTAE” in the same midnight ( 23 30 hrs IST/1800 UTC) over the same region. It moved nearly northwards and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm in the evening ( 17 30 hrs IST) of 15 th^ May over eastcentral Arabian Sea. Continuing to move nearly northwards, it intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm over eastcentral Arabian Sea in the early hours (0230 hrs IST/2100 UTC) of 16 th^ May over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It gradually started moving north-northwestwards from noon (1130 hours IST/0600 UTC) of 16th May and intensified rapidly into an extremely severe cyclonic storm in the early hours (0530 hrs IST/0000 UTC) of 17th May. Thereafter, it entered marginally unfavourable environment, weakened gradually and crossed Saurashtra coast near latitude 20.8°N and longitude 71.1°E, close to northeast of Diu (about 20 km northeast of Diu) during 2000-2300 hours IST of 17th May, 2021 with maximum sustained wind speed of 160- 170 kmph gusting to 185 kmph. During the landfall, the system moved slowly nearly northward, as it started recurvature in the track. After landfall, it weakened into a very severe cyclonic storm over Saurashtra in the midnight (2330 hrs IST) of 17th^ May. Thereafter, it started moving north-northeastwards and weakened into a severe cyclonic storm in the forenoon (0830 hours IST) over Saurashtra and further into a cyclonic storm during noon (1130 hours IST) of 18th May, 2021 over Saurashtra and adjoining Gujarat region. Continuing to move north-northeastwards, it weakened into a deep depression over Gujarat region in the evening (1730 hrs IST) and into a depression over Gujarat region and adjoining South Rajasthan in the midnight (2330 hrs IST) of 18th^ May. The observed track of the system is presented in Fig. 1. The best track parameters of the system are presented in Table 1. 2. Salient features: i. TAUKTAE was the first cyclonic storm over the north Indian Ocean during the year 2021. ii. During satellite era (196 1 - 2021), Tauktae was the most intense cyclone after Kandla cyclone in 1998. During this period, 3 extremely severe cyclonic storms crossed Gujarat coast. Tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) crossing Gujarat coast during 196 1 - 2020 are presented in
Fig. 2. Frequency of TCs crossing Gujarat coast is presented in Fig.3. The cyclone Tauktae had the same intensity as that of Kandla cyclone of June, 1998 at the time of landfall as both had maximum sustained surface wind speed of 160-170 kmph gusting to 185 kmph at the time of landfall. However life time maximum intensity was higher in case of Tauktae, as it had the maximum intensity of 180-190 gusting to 210 kmph over the east-central Arabian Sea during early morning to afternoon of 17th^ May 2021. iii. It was a very rare cyclone causing adverse weather and damage over entire west coast states and Union Territories and Lakshadweep as it moved parallel to west coast and crossed Gujarat. iv. It had a longer period of the impact of cyclone intensity over Gujarat (about 24 hrs from 1730 IST of 17th^ to 1730 IST/1200 UTC of 18th May). v. The track length of the cyclone was 18 80 km. vi. It had rapid intensification for about 24 hrs period during 16 th morning (0530 IST/0000 UTC) to 1 7 th morning ( 05 30 IST/0000 UTC), with increase in maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) from 65 knots at 0530 IST of 1 6 th to 100 knots at 0530 IST of 1 7 th. vii. The peak MSW of the cyclone was 1 80 - 19 0 kmph ( 10 0 knots) gusting to 210 kmph during 0530 IST (0000 UTC) 0f 1 7 th^ to 1130 IST (0600 UTC) of 1 7 th over the eastcentral AS. The lowest estimated central pressure was 9 5 0 hPa during the period with a pressure drop of about 50 hPa at the centre as compared to surrounding (Fig. 2 a). viii. The life period (D to D) of the system was 129 hours ( 5 days & 9 hours) against long period average (LPA) (1990-2013) of 165 hours ( 6 days & 2 1 hrs) for VSCS categories over Arabian Sea during pre-monsoon season. ix. It moved with 12 hour average translational speed of 14.4 kmph against LPA (1990-2013) of 11.8 kmph for VSCS category over Arabian Sea during pre-monsoon season (Fig. 2 b). x. The Velocity Flux, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (a measure of damage potential) and Power Dissipation Index (a measure of loss) were 10.6 X10^2 knots, 7.7 X 10^4 knots^2 and 6.11 X10^6 knots^3 respectively. xi. The operational track forecast errors for 24 and 48 hrs lead period were 73 and 113 km respectively against the average long period average (LPA) track forecast errors of 77 and 117 km during last five years (201 6 - 20 ) respectively. xii. The operational absolute error (AE) of intensity (wind) forecast for 24 and 48 hrs lead period were 4.4 and 8 .9 kt against the LPA of 7.9 and 11.4 kt respectively. xiii. The operational landfall point errors were 27 and 71 km for 24 and 48 hrs lead period against LPA of 32 and 62 km. xiv. The operational landfall time errors were 3.5 hrs and 6.5 hrs for 24 and 48 hrs lead period against LPA of 2.5 hrs and 5.0 hrs. xv. As the cyclone moved parallel to west coast, it caused heavy to extremely heavy rainfall activity, strong wind and tidal waves affecting Lakshadweep on 13- 14 th, Kerala on 1 4 - 15 th, Karnataka on 15th, Goa and south coastal Maharashtra on 15- 16 th, north Maharashtra on 16- 17 th, Gujarat, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli on 17th and 18th. It’s remnant also impacted northwest India with heavy to very heavy rainfall activity at isolated places over Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand on 19th^ May 2021. xvi. It also caused strong winds along the west coast of India as well as over Lakshadweep. Agathi reported maximum sustained wind speed of 45 kts on 14th^ May, Panaji reported 46 kts on 16th, Diu reported 85 kts on 17th. xvii. A total of 41 national bulletins, 30 RSMC bulletins to WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries, 9 Press Releases, 15 hourly bulletins on the day of landfall, 18 bulletins for
Fig.3: Frequency of landfalling TCs of Gujarat coast during 1961- 2021
The six hourly maximum sustained wind speed & estimated central pressure and translational speed are presented in Fig. 4 (a) and 4 (b). Tauktae exhibited rapid intensification during 16/00 00 UTC to 17th/0 000 UTC with increase in wind speed 65 kts to 100 kts during 24 hours. It moved very slowly during and after landfall leading to maintenance of cyclonic storm intensity over Gujarat after landfall.
Fig. 4: (a) Translational speed & direction of movement and (b) Maximum sustained surface winds (kts) & Estimated Central Pressure
Table1: Best track positions and other parameters of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm , “Tauktae” over the Arabian Sea during 14 May- 19 May, 2021
Date Time (UTC)
Centre lat.^0 N/ long. 0 E
C.I.
NO.
Estimated Central Pressure (hPa)
Estimated Maximum Sustained Surface Wind (kt)
Estimated Pressure drop at the Centre (hPa)
Grad e
0300 10.5 72.3 1.5 997 25 3 D
0600 11.0 72.5 1.5 996 25 4 D
0900 11.5 72.5 2.0 995 30 5 D
1200 11.6 72.6 2.0 995 30 6 DD
1800 12.2 72.6 2.5 993 35 7 CS
2100 12.2 72.6 2.5 992 40 8 CS
(a) (b)
3. Monitoring of TAUKTAE:
India Meteorological Department (IMD) maintained round the clock watch over the north Indian Ocean and the cyclone was monitored since 6th^ May, about 7 days prior to the formation of low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea & adjoining Lakshadweep area on 13th^ May and 8 days prior to formation of depression over Lakshadweep area. The cyclone was monitored with the help of available satellite observations from INSAT 3D and 3DR, SCAT SAT, polar orbiting satellites and available ships & buoy observations in the region. The system was also monitored by Doppler Weather RADARs (DWR) Thiruvananthapuram, Kochi and Goa. Various numerical weather prediction models run by Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) institutions, global models and dynamical-statistical models were utilized to predict the genesis, track, landfall and intensity of the cyclone. A digitized forecasting system of IMD was utilized for
0000 12.7 72.5 2.5 992 40 8 CS
0300 12.8 72.5 2.5 992 40 8 CS
0600 13.2 72.6 2.5 990 45 10 CS
0900 13.5 72.7 2.5 990 45 10 CS
1200 13.8 72.7 3.0 985 55 15 SCS
1500 14.2 72.7 3.0 984 55 16 SCS
1800 14.5 72.6 3.0 982 60 18 SCS
2100 14.7 72.7 3.0 982 60 18 SCS
0000 15.0 72.7 4.0 979 65 21 VSCS
0300 15.3 72.7 4.0 976 70 24 VSCS
0600 15.7 72.7 4.0 976 70 24 VSCS
0900 16.2 72.6 4.0 976 70 24 VSCS
1200 16.7 72.5 4.5 972 75 28 VSCS
1500 17.2 72.3 4.5 978 80 32 VSCS
1800 17.5 72.0 4.5 964 85 36 VSCS
2100 18.0 71.7 5.0 960 90 40 ESCS
0000 18.5 71.5 5.5 950 100 50 ESCS
0300 18.8 71.5 5.5 950 100 50 ESCS
0600 19.2 71.4 5.5 950 100 50 ESCS
0900 19.6 71.4 5.5 950 100 50 ESCS
1200 20.1 71.3 5.0 955 95 45 ESCS
1500 20.5 71.2 5.0 960 90 40 ESCS
Crossed Saurashtra coast about 20 km northeast of Diu, near Lat.20.8°N and Long. 71.1°E during 1530-1730 UTC of 17 th^ May 2021 with maximum sustained wind speed of 90 knots gusting to 100 knots. 1800 20.9 71.1 - 964 85 36 VSCS 2100 21.3 71.2 - 972 75 28 VSCS
0000 21.5 71.2 - 978 65 22 VSCS
0300 21.6 71.3 - 984 55 16 SCS
0600 22.0 71.5 - 990 45 10 CS
0900 22.5 71.8 - 992 40 8 CS
1200 23.1 72.3 - 993 35 7 CS
1500 23.6 72.6 - 994 30 6 DD
1800 24.1 73.0 - 995 30 5 DD
19/05/2021 0000 24.5 73.3 - 996 25 4 D
0300 24.9 73.7 - 997 20 3 D
0600 25.8 74.8 - 997 20 3 D
1200 Weakened into a Well-Marked Low Pressure Area over Northeast Rajasthan.
Rainfall (cm) reported (realised during the past 24 hours ending at 0830 hrs IST of date) along the west coast during 12th-20th^ May, 2021
Realized 24 hrs accumulated rainfall (≥7cm) ending at 0830 hrs IST of date during the life cycle of the system is presented below:
12 May LAKSHADWEEP: Agathi-8, Minicoy- 1. 13 May LAKSHADWEEP: Agathi-17, Amini-8, Minicoy- 5. 14 May KERALA & MAHE: Mavelikara-15, Konni-14, Kayamkulam-14, Kayamkulam Agri-13, Neyyattinkara-11, Nedumangad-11, Kottayam-11, Kurudamannil-10, Varkala-10, Mancompu-9, Kozha-9, Vaikom-9, Haripad-9, Kumarakam-9, Chalakudi-8, Aluva-8, Thritala-7, Kochi C.I.A.L.-7, Ernakulam South- LAKSHADWEEP: Agathi-12. SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA: Balehonnur- 15 May COASTAL KARNATAKA: Mangaluru AP - 8, Panambur - 7, Mangaluru-7, KERALA & MAHE: Kochi-21, Peermade-21, Kodungallur-20, Enamakkal-19, Ernakulam South- 17, Kumarakam-16, Kannur-16, Kollam-16, Alapuzha-16, Chalakudi-15, Irinjalakuda-15, Ponnani-14, Pattambi-14, Vaikom-14, Cherthala-13, Kozhikode-13, Varkala-13, Mancompu-13, Thritala-13, Mavelikara-12, Aluva-12, Kayamkulam-12, Kurudamannil-11, Konni-11, Quilandi-11, Perumpavur-11, Taliparamba-11, Vellanikkara-11, Kochi C.I.A.L.-11, Kottayam-11, Haripad-11, Vadakkancherry-11, Kozha-11, Kanjirappally-10, Munnar KSEB-10, Manjeri-10, Mahe-9, Perinthalmanna-9, Vadakara-9, Ottapalam-9, Punalur-9, Talassery-9, Hosdurg-9, Piravam-8, Nilambur-8, Angadipuram-8, Vyttiri-8, Karipur -7, Thodupuzha-7, Kudulu-7, Neyyattinkara- LAKSHADWEEP: Agathi-10, Amini- 16 May KONKAN & GOA: Canacona-7, Pernem- COASTAL KARNATAKA: Kollur-24, Manki-19, Kota-19, Puttur -19, Kundapur-17, Bhatkal-16, Udupi-15, Dharmasthala-14, Mani-13, Mulki-12, Karkala-11, Shirali -11, Mangaluru -11, Kadra- 11, Panambur -10, Karwar -10, Mudubidre-10, Belthangadi-9, Honavar -9, Gokarna-9, Vitla ARG-9, Sulya-8, Siddapur- NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA: Vijayapura- SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA: Hosanagara-19, Bhagamandala-17, Kalasa-13, Virajpet-13, Linganamakki -9, Thalaguppa-7, Sagar- KERALA & MAHE: Mahe-24, Vadakara-23, Vyttiri-21, Taliparamba-17, Talassery-17, Quilandi- 16, Ernakulam South-14, Kochi I.A.F.-14, Kochi C.I.A.L.-13, Aluva -13, Manantoddy-13, Irikkur- 13, Kannur-12, Piravam-11, Perumpavur-11, Enamakkal-11, Kudulu-10, Thodupuzha-10, Karipur.-10, Munnar KSEB-10, Varkala-10, Kozha-9, Vaikom-9, Nilambur-9, Neyyattinkara-9, Idukki-9, Vadakkancherry-8, Nedumangad-8, Parambikulam-8, Irinjalakuda-8, Perinthalamanna- 8, Pattambi-8, Angadipuram-8, Kozhikode-8, Ottapalam-8, Peermade -8, Chalakudi-7, Ponnani- 7, Thiruvananthapuram-7, Ambalavayal-7, Mannarkkad-7, Myladumpara Agri-7, Thritala-
17 May KONKAN & GOA: Sawantwadi-37, Ratnagiri -36, Dodamarg-25, Panjim -23, Malvan-21, Kudal- 20, Devgad-20, Kankavli-19, Vengurla -18, Mapusa-17, Lanja-16, Dabolim- Navy-15, Vaibhavwadi-15, Sangameshwar Devrukh-14, Guhagarh-12, Margao-12, Dapoli Agri-8, Harnai - 8, Sanguem- COASTAL KARNATAKA: Kadra-11, Honavar -7, Kollur- 18 May GUJARAT REGION: Umergam-18, Daman-15, Daman FMO-13, Surat City-9, Khanvel-8, Valsad-8, Silvassa- SAURASHTRA & KUTCH: Bagasra-21, Gir Gadhada-19, Una-17, Savarkundla-17, Palitana-16, Amreli-13, Mahuva-13, Rajula-13, Khambha-13, Babra-13, Gadhda-11, Visavadar-10, Diu-9, Umrala-9, Bhavnagar-8, Dhari-7, Jesar- KONKAN & GOA: Palghar Agri-30, Dahanu -28, Santacruz -23, Devgad-23, Sawantwadi-21, Colaba -21, Talasari-17, Canacona-9, Tbia -9, Kankavli-9, Murud-8, Wada- 19 May GUJARAT REGION: Nadiad-23, Mahudha-16, Anand-16, Daman FMO-15, Umergam-15, Matar- 15, Pardi-14, Daman-14, Khambhat-13, Kheda-13, Tarapur-13, Vaso-13, Olpad-12, Khergam- 12, Mahemdavad-12, Dhansura-11, Ahmedabad City-11, Jalalpor-11, Sojitra-11, Kathalal-11, Prantij-10, Wanakbori-10, Borsad-10, Navsari-10, Kapadvanj-10, Virpur-10, Modasa-10, Balasinor-9, Dahegam-9, Bayad-9, Bardoli-9, Talod-9, Madhban-9, Valsad-9, Hansot-9, Vadodara-9, Vagra-9, Meghraj-9, Bhiloda-8, Himatanagar-8, Kamrej-8, Anklav-8, Silvassa-8, Padra-8, Palsana-7, Gandevi-7, Thasra-7, Galteshwar-7, Idar-7, Vapi-7, Poshina-7, Chikhli-7, Sanand-7, Vijapur-7, Khanpur-7, Kaprada-7, Kalol-7, Dascroi-7, Mahuva-7, Lunawada-7, Danta- 7, Malpur-7, Petlad-7, SAURASHTRA & KUTCH: Gir Gadhada-19, Una-18, Bhavnagar-11, Rajula-10, Botad-9, Shihor- 9, Visavadar-8, Palitana-8, Vallabhipur-8, Umrala-7, EAST RAJASTHAN: Veja-23, Kanva-14, Devel-14, Dungarpur Tehsil-14, Dhambola-13, Sarara- 13, Girva-11, Aspur-11, Gogunda-10, Ganeshpur-10, Ajmer Tehsil-9, Railmagra-9, Dungla-9, Sagwara-8, Jhadol-8, Udaipur/D-Aero-8, Ajmer-7, Tatgarh-7, Salumber-7, Nithuwa-7, Bari-Sadri- 7, Loharia-7, Dhariabad-7, Badesar-7, 20 th^ May: UTTARAKHAND: Nainital-12; Mussoorie-10; Mukteshwar-9; Haldwani- HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI: Jhajjar-12; Gurgaon-11; Mewat-8; Faridabad-8; Narnaul- WEST UTTAR PRADESH: Bareilly-15; Meerut-9; Aligarh-7; Muzzafarnagar- EAST UTTAR PRADESH: Gorakhpur-8; Varanasi-8; Sultanpur-7; Mirzapur-7, Jaunpur-7, WEST RAJASTHAN: Nagaur- EAST RAJASTHAN: Dholpur-10; Alwar-9; Jaipur-8, Dausa-7; Sikar-
(b) Peak wind speed (kmph) recorded by the Meteorological Observatories in association with the passage of TAUKTAE Agathi reported maximum sustained wind speed of 45 kts on 14th^ May, Panaji reported 46 kts on 16 th. The maximum wind at the time of landfall over Gujarat and Diu was 90 kts gusting to 100 kts ( 160 - 170 kmph gusting to 185 kmph) on 17th^ May.
(c) Storm Surge: 3 - 4 meters of storm surge above the astronomical tide inundated the low lying areas of coastal districts of Saurashtra around the time of landfall.
In the bulletin issued at 0815 hrs IST of 17th May ( about 15 hours prior to landfall ), the warnings were further specified and it was informed that the system would reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17th & cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) during the night (2000 – 2300 hrs IST) of 17th^ May as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained wind speed 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph. Actually, the extremely severe cyclonic storm TAUKTAE crossed Saurashtra coast close to about 20 km northeast of Diu near latitude 20.8^0 N and longitude 71.1^0 E during 2000-2300 hrs IST of 17th^ May with wind speed of 160-170 kmph gusting to 185 kmph. Thus, the track, landfall point & time, intensity and associated adverse weather like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge were well predicted by IMD. Fig. 7-9 represent the observed and forecast track, intensity & landfall forecast issued at various lead times indicating accuracy in track, landfall and intensity forecast.
Fig.8 (a-b): Observed track (14-19 May) and forecast track issued at 1430 hours IST of 16th May based on 1130 hrs IST observations of 16th^ May ( about 36 hours prior to landfall ) demonstrating accuracy in track, intensity and landfall.
Fig.9 (a-b): Observed track (14-19 May) and forecast track issued at 0830 hours IST of 17th^ May based on 0530 hrs IST observations of 17th^ May ( about 15 hours prior to landfall ) demonstrating accuracy in track, intensity and landfall. DATE/TIME IN UTC, IST = UTC + 0530 HRS, D: DEPRESSION, DD: DEEP DEPRESSION, CS: CYCLONIC STORM, SCS: SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, VSCS: VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, ESCS: EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OBSERVED TRACK, FORECAST TRACK, CONE OF UNCERTAINTY MSW(knot)/kmph) Impact Action 28 - 33 /(52–61 ) Very rough seas. Total suspension of fishing operations 34 - 40/(62-74) High to very high seas Total suspension of fishing operations 41 - 63/(75-117) Very High seas Total suspension of fishing operations ≥ 64 (≥118) Phenomenal Total suspension of fishing operations
iii) Operational Track, Intensity and Landfall Point & Time Forecast Errors:
The operational track, intensity and landfall errors as compared to long period average errors during 2016-20 are presented in Fig. 10. The track forecast errors for 24, 48 and 72 hrs lead period were 73, 118, and 224 km respectively against the LPA errors of 77, 117, and 159 km respectively ( Fig. 10 a). The absolute error (AE) of intensity (wind) forecast for 24, 48 and 72 hrs lead period were 4.4, 8.9 and 15.5 knots against the LPA errors of 7.9, 11.4, and 14.1 knots during 2015-19 respectively. The landfall point forecast errors for 24 and 48 hrs lead period were 27 and 71km respectively against the LPA errors of 32 and 62 km during 2016-20 respectively. The landfall time forecast errors for 24 and 48 hrs lead period were 3.5 and 6.5 hours respectively against the LPA errors of 2.5 and 6.5 hours during 2016-20 respectively.
Fig. 10: Operational track, intensity and landfall errors of extremely severe cyclonic storm Tauktae as compared to long period average errors during 2016- 2020
6. Warning Services
Bulletins issued by Cyclone Warning Division, New Delhi Track, intensity and landfall forecast: IMD continuously monitored, predicted and issued bulletins containing track, intensity, and landfall forecast for +06, +12, +18, +24, +36 and +48… +96 hrs lead period commencing from 14th^ May morning till the system weakened into a low pressure area. The above forecasts were issued from the stage of depression onwards along with the cone of uncertainty in the track forecast five times a day and every three hours during the cyclone period. The hourly updates were also provided 12 hours prior to landfall till the system maintained the intensity of cyclonic storm over Gujarat. Cyclone structure forecast for shipping and coastal hazard management: The radius of maximum wind and radii of MSW ≥28, ≥34, ≥50 and ≥64 knots wind in four quadrants of cyclone was issued every six hourly, commencing from 16th^ May morning giving forecast for +06, +12, +18, +24, +36 and +96 hrs lead period. Four stage Warning: Considering the development of cyclonic storm over southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area, IMD issued first Press Release at 1400 hours IST of 11th^ May ( 2 days in advance of formation of low pressure area on 13th^ May ). Heavy rainfall, strong wind and tidal waves warnings were issued alongwith advisories for fishermen. The Press Release was further updated on 13th^ May ( 5 days prior to landfall ) on development of low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea. It indicated that the cyclonic storm over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area would reach Gujarat coast on 18th^ May. Considering the expected development of a cyclonic storm the Pre cyclone watch was issued for south Gujarat and Diu coasts in the first bulletin issued at 1245 hrs IST of 14 st^ May, when the system was a depression over Lakshadweep (about 80 hours prior to landfall of extremely severe cyclonic storm TAUKTAE). Warnings were further upgraded and Cyclone alert for Gujarat & Diu coasts was given in the bulletin issued at 0920 hrs IST of 15th^ May, on intensification of the system into a cyclonic storm (about 6 2 hours prior to landfall of extremely severe cyclonic storm TAUKTAE) Warnings were further upgraded and Cyclone Warning for Gujarat and Diu coasts was issued at 1730 hrs IST of 16th^ May, when the system was a very severe over eastcentral Arabian Sea (about 30 hours prior to landfall of TAUKTAE) Post landfall outlook for interior districts of Gujarat and southern districts of Rajasthan indicating expected severe weather over interior districts of Gujarat and southern parts of Rajasthan was issued at 0815 hrs IST of 17th^ May, when the system was an extremely severe cyclonic storm over eastcentral Arabian Sea (about 1 5 hours prior to landfall of TAUKTAE) Adverse weather warning bulletins: The tropical cyclone forecasts alongwith expected adverse weather like heavy rain, gale wind and storm surge was issued with every three hourly update to central, state and district level disaster management agencies including MHA NDRF, NDMA for all concerned states along the west coast of India including Lakshadweep Islands, Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Daman & Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Rajasthan. The bulletins also contained the suggested action for disaster managers and general
public in particular for fishermen. These bulletins were also issued to Defence including Indian Navy & Indian Air Force, NDRF, Indian Cost Guard, ports, Shipping, fishery, Railways, surface transport and aviation authorities. Warning graphics: The graphical display of the observed and forecast track with cone of uncertainty and the wind forecast for different quadrants were disseminated by email and uploaded in the RSMC, New Delhi website (http://rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/) regularly. The adverse weather warnings related to heavy rain, gale/squally wind & storm surge were also presented in graphics alongwith colour codes in the website. Warning and advisory through social media: Daily updates (every three hourly or whenever there was any significant change in intensity/track/landfall) were uploaded on Facebook and Twitter during the life period of the system since the development of low pressure area over the Arabian Sea. However, from 17th^ afternoon (0700 UTC) onwards, hourly updates were issued and sent to disaster managers by email, uploaded on websites, posted on Facebook and Twitter till the system maintained the intensity of cyclonic storm. Press Conference, Press release and Media briefing: Press and electronic media were given daily updates since inception of system through press release, e-mail, website, video capsule by DGM and SMS. Warning and advisory for marine community: The three/six hourly Global Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS) bulletins were issued by the Marine Weather Services division at New Delhi and bulletins for maritime interest were issued by Area cyclone warning centres of IMD at Mumbai, Chennai and Cyclone warning centres at Thiruvananthapuram, Ahmedabad to ports, fishermen, coastal and high sea shipping community. Fishermen Warning: Regular warnings for fishermen for deep Sea of Arabian Sea and the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra & Gujarat, the Union Territories along the west coast & Lakshadweep Islands were issued since 11 th^ May. Advisory for international Civil Aviation: The Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) bulletin for International Civil Aviation were issued every six hourly to all meteorological watch offices in Asia Pacific region for issue of significant meteorological information (SIGMET). It was also sent to Aviation Disaster Risk Reduction (ADRR) centre of WMO at Hong Kong. Diagnostic and prognostic features of cyclone: The prognostics and diagnostics of the systems were described in the RSMC bulletins. Hourly Bulletin: Hourly updates on the location, distance from recognised station, intensity and landfall commenced from 17th^ afternoon (0700 UTC) onwards till the system maintained the intensity of cyclonic storm. High level briefing meetings attended by the Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department: Meeting on impending Cyclone Scenario in Arabian Sea under the Chairmanship of Member Secretary, NDMA on 13th^ May and Hon’ble Cabinet secretary on 14th^ May. National Crisis Management Committee Meeting chaired by Hon’ble Prime Minister and Cabinet Secretary on 16th. Review Meeting under the joint Chairmanship of Hon’ble Minister of State for Ports, Shipping & Waterways (I/C), Hon’ble Minister of Commerce & Industry on 16th^ May.
5 Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre Bulletin (Text & Graphics)
18 1. Met Watch offices in Asia Pacific regions and middle east through GTS to issue Significant Meteorological information for International Civil Aviation.
- WMO’s Aviation Disaster Risk Reduction (ADRR), Hong Kong through ftp
- RSMC website 6 Tropical Cyclone Vital Statistics
18 Modelling group of IMD, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Centre (NCMRWF), Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi, IIT Bhubaneswar etc
- Warnings through SMS
82,80,446 SMS to disaster managers at national level and concerned states (every time when there was change in intensity)-- 1780 To general public to users registered with RSMC website from the states of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Gujarat and Maharashtra and National level disaster managers— 1,39, Through INCOIS on Ocean State Forecast- 12,53, To farmers of Tamilnadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttrakhand through Kisaan Portal- 68,85,
- Warnings through Social Media
Daily four times and when intensity changed
Cyclone Warnings were uploaded on Social networking sites (Face book, Twitter and Whatsapp) since inception to weakening of system (every time when there was change in track, intensity and landfall characteristics)
- Hourly Bulletin 15 IMD’s website, RSMC New Delhi website
- FAX and e-mail to Control Room Ministry of Home Affairs & National Disaster Management Authority, Cabinet Secretariat, Minister of Science & Technology, PIB MoES, Headquarter Integrated Defence Staff, Director General Doordarshan, All India Radio, National Disaster Response Force, UNI, Chief Secretary- Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Gujarat and Maharashtra and Administrator Lakshadweep Islands.
- Press Release 9 Disaster Managers, Media persons by email and uploaded on website
- Press Briefings Frequently Regular briefing daily
Table3: Statistics of bulletins issued by Area Cyclone Warning Centre Mumbai, CWC Thiruvananthapuram, Ahmedabad, Meteorological Centre Bengaluru
8. Acknowledgement: India Meteorological Department (IMD) acknowledge contribution from all the stake holders and disaster management agencies who contributed to the successful monitoring, prediction and early warning service of ESCS TAUKTAE. IMD and RSMC New Delhi duly acknowledge the contribution from the World Meteorological Organisation and all the 13 WMO/ESCAP Panel
S.N. Type of Bulletin CWC TRV
MC
BNG
MC
Goa
ACWC
Mumbai
CWC
AHM
- Sea Area Bulletins Nil Nil 0 20 Nil
- Coastal Weather Bulletins 8 Nil 0 20 19
- Fishermen Warnings issued 16 4 22 12 21
- Port Warnings (^8) Nil 13 NIL 21
- Heavy Rainfall Warning
(^12 6 9 4 )
- Gale Wind Warning (^7 01 9 24 )
- Storm Surge Warning - Nil 5 5 12
- Information & Warning issued to State Government & other Agencies
(^25 7 22) Frequently 18
9. SMS -^469 77 -^ -
- No. of Press releases 5 4 4 5 5
- No. of impact based warnings for District and City 94
1 14 - 11
- No. of whatsapp messages 108 469 360 - 800
- No. of updates on facebook 57 150 32 -^39
- No. of updates on tweeter 38 125 48 -^05
- No. of Forecast / Warning video released
2 8 6 - 2
