Public Opinion on Preventability of Wars: Study by National Opinion Research Center, Lecture notes of History of War

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NATIONAL OPINION RESEARCH CENTER

UNIVERSITY OF DENVER

Report No. 16 ""44 December 1943

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In spite of the lofty ambitions of peace planners about six out of ten

Americans with opinions on the subject believe there will

always be

wars. Four out of ten Americans

, however

, think that eventually

all wars can be prevented

, and more than half of those are

hopeful that after

this war a way may be worked out to prevent future global conflicts. The attitude towards the United States

'^ participation in a

post-war international union

, of both those

who think wars are inevitable and

those who take a more hopeful view

, is strikingly similar. About seven out of ten of those ,

who think wars are absolutely unpreventable and eight out of ten of the more hopeful groups , including those who think it is possible to prevent all wars " but people will never do what is necessary to prevent them " favor the union idea. Basic attitudes regarding the inevitability of war do not seem subject to quick change.

Two questions

, presented over a period of about nine

months , elicit very similar

responses. The wording of the question asked of a

nation-wide cross-section in January, 1943

, read: After the war ,^ do you think we wil be able to end all wars between nations, or do you think there wil always be big wars?" Can end wars 37% Always be wars 62 %

The second wording, used in the June and September surveys

, follows:

Qualified answer 1

1 00 % Which one of these ideas comes closest to what you think about the chanc:es of preventing wars in the future?" A.^ No matter what is done to prevent them, there

wil always be wars.........................................

B. " It is possible to prevent all wars, but people wil never do what is necessary to prevent them............ C. " Some day all wars wil be prevented, but this war wil not be the last one......... ........................ D. " After this war, it is

likely that a

way wil be worked out to prevent any more wars Undecided With an amazing unity of opinion , majorities of all population groups included in the June and September surveys (combined on the chart) select one of the first two choices presented in the multiple choice question. The differences of opinion between age groups are insignificant ,^ but more persons in the lower than in the upper educational , economic , and occupational groups tend to consider all wars inevitable (choice AJ. The sharpest differences , those between persons of varying educational backgrounds, are shown on the chart. Persons in the more privileged groups more often express the opinion either that JUNE 1943 SEPTEMBER 1943

37% J

J55%

J J 100%

Undecided 8 % COMBINED 35%

J44' 100% humanity will never take the steps necessary to prevent all wars , or that some day all wars will be ended. Of those who believe the present war will be the last one , the most significant differences appear along political and religious lines. When voters with opinions are considered, 32 per cent of J 940 Democrats , in contrast to 22 per cent of Republicans think a way will be worked out to prevent any more wars after this one. Most optimistic of all groups regarding a lasting peace are the Jews (see the chart), 44 per cent of whom believe the present world conflict may be the final one, Number of interviews is as follows: January, 1943- 2,466. June, 1943-

557. September

C. wil be glad to send additional information regardig the national cross-section and methods used in the sureys on which this Teporl is based.